Non-linearities – Integration and Implementation Insights

Understanding and responding to a chaotic world

February 10, 2026January 27, 2026

By Jamais Cascio.

Is it helpful to conceive the world as Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible or BANI? What do these terms mean and what mental models can help us survive in a BANI world?

I created BANI as an acronym in 2018 to better describe an increasingly chaotic world. BANI is a sense-making framework that recognises recurring themes in disruptions that make it increasingly difficult to understand the big picture and to make decisions. BANI is not saying something about the world, but rather about how we perceive it. It comes from a human inability to fully understand what to do when pattern-seeking and familiar explanations no longer work. It involves seeing the world as it is and letting go of illusions of system strength, control, predictability and certainty. BANI sets out to illuminate systems, but operates at a human level in a visceral and experiential way.

Four core concepts for expanding a systems view to system dynamics

September 18, 2025September 16, 2025

By Andrei Savu.

Once you understand the basic concepts underpinning systems, what other concepts are key to understanding system dynamics?

While systems thinking teaches you to see and shape system structure, system dynamics focuses on understanding nonlinear behavior over time. An additional four key concepts are added to five core concepts in systems thinking described in a companion post.

The four additional key concepts for understanding system dynamics are: stocks, flows, delays and dynamic behavior patterns.

Stocks and flows

Stocks and flows are foundational concepts, essential for analyzing and designing effective systems.

Insights into the science of complexity

January 9, 2026October 29, 2024

By Jean Boulton

What are the key ideas that define the science of complexity? How do they help us better understand our world so that we can engage more effectively?

The science of complexity conveys a view of the world as dynamic, richly interdependent and full of variety.

“A world – organic and emergent, shaped by history and context – naturally patterned, yet always in process” (Boulton 2024: 39).

Ilya Prigogine asked why classical physics and evolutionary biology seem to contradict each other. The word that brought these two sciences together and shaped the development of complexity theory, was ‘open’ (Prigogine 1977).

Situations that are open to their environments display emerging order in the form of patterns of relationships.

Multidisciplinary perspectives on unknown unknowns

October 7, 2025September 6, 2022

By Gabriele Bammer

gabriele-bammer_nov-2021 — Gabriele Bammer (biography)

This is part of a series of occasional “synthesis blog posts” drawing together perspectives on related topics across i2Insights contributions.

How can different disciplines and practitioners enhance the ability to understand and manage unknown unknowns, also referred to as deep uncertainty?

Seventeen blog posts have addressed these issues, covering:

how unknown unknowns can be understood
exploiting unknown unknowns
accepting unknown unknowns
reducing unknown unknowns.

How unknown unknowns can be understood

It is useful to review understanding of unknown unknowns from the perspective of the individual and the system, before turning to the project level.

Fifteen characteristics of complex social systems

May 31, 2021March 17, 2020

By Hamilton Carvalho

Author - Hamilton Carvalho — Hamilton Carvalho (biography)

What is it about complex social systems that keeps reproducing old problems, as well as adding new ones? How can public policy move away from what I call the Mencken Syndrome (in reference to a quotation from American journalist Henry Mencken) – that is, continually proposing clear and simple solutions to complex social problems – that are also wrong!

With this goal in mind, I have compiled a list of fifteen major characteristics of complex social systems based on the system dynamics and complexity sciences literatures, as well as my own research.

Detecting non-linear change ‘inside-the-system’ and ‘out-of-the-blue’

August 11, 2023January 14, 2020

Susan van ‘t Klooster and Marjolijn Haasnoot

authors_susan-van-t-Klooster_marjolijn-haasnoot — 1. Susan van ‘t Klooster (biography)
2. Marjolijn Haasnoot (biography)

Change can be expected, envisioned and known, and even created, accelerated or stopped. But change does not always follow a linear and predictable path, nor is it always controllable. Novelty and surprise are inescapable features of life. Non-linear change can involve threats or opportunities.

Although it defines the world we live in, who we are, the outlooks we have and what we do, we often do not relate to non-linear change in a meaningful way. What is holding us back from engaging with it? How do we deal with non-linear change? And what are promising ways forward?

Why is thinking about and anticipating non-linear change difficult?

Generally speaking, non-linearity is difficult to define and conceptualize, because there are multiple interacting forces at the intersection of many domains, manifesting on different spatial and temporal scales and many different actors and (often conflicting) perspectives are involved.