Path dependence – Integration and Implementation Insights

Fifteen characteristics of complex social systems

May 31, 2021March 17, 2020

By Hamilton Carvalho

Author - Hamilton Carvalho — Hamilton Carvalho (biography)

What is it about complex social systems that keeps reproducing old problems, as well as adding new ones? How can public policy move away from what I call the Mencken Syndrome (in reference to a quotation from American journalist Henry Mencken) – that is, continually proposing clear and simple solutions to complex social problems – that are also wrong!

With this goal in mind, I have compiled a list of fifteen major characteristics of complex social systems based on the system dynamics and complexity sciences literatures, as well as my own research.

The path perspective on modelling projects

February 10, 2025March 28, 2017

By Tuomas J. Lahtinen, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Raimo P. Hämäläinen

authors_tuomas-lahtinen_joseph-guillaume_raimo_hamalainen — 1. Tuomas J. Lahtinen (biography)
2. Joseph H. A. Guillaume (biography)
3. Raimo P. Hämäläinen (biography)

How can we identify and evaluate decision forks in a modelling project; those points where a different decision might lead to a better model?

Although modellers often follow so called best practices, it is not uncommon that a project goes astray. Sometimes we become so embedded in the work that we do not take time to stop and think through options when decision points are reached.

One way of clarifying thinking about this phenomenon is to think of the path followed. The path is the sequence of steps actually taken in developing a model or in a problem solving case. A modelling process can typically be carried out in different ways, which generate different paths that can lead to different outcomes. That is, there can be path dependence in modelling.