By Joseph Guillaume
What’s a productive way to think about undesirable outcomes and how to avoid them, especially in an unpredictable future full of unknown unknowns? Here I describe the technique of vulnerability analysis, which essentially has three steps:
- Step 1: Identify undesirable outcomes, to be avoided
- Step 2: Look for conditions that can lead to such outcomes, ie. vulnerabilities
- Step 3: Manage the system to mitigate or adapt to vulnerable conditions.
The power of vulnerability analysis is that, by starting from outcomes, it avoids making assumptions about what led to the vulnerabilities.