Modelling – Page 3 – Integration and Implementation Insights

Complexity and agent-based modelling

February 12, 2025March 7, 2017

By Richard Taylor and John Forrester

authors_richard-taylor_john-forrester_updated — 1. Richard Taylor (biography)
2. John Forrester (biography)

Policy problems are complex and – while sometimes simple solutions can work – complexity tools and complexity thinking have a major part to play in planning effective policy responses. What is ‘complexity’ and what does ‘complexity science’ do? How can agent-based modelling help address the complexity of environment and development policy issues?

Complexity

At the most obvious level, one can take complexity to mean all systems that are not simple, by which we mean that they can be influenced but not controlled. Complexity can be examined through complexity science and complex system models.

Citizen science and participatory modeling

February 14, 2024February 2, 2017

By Rebecca Jordan and Steven Gray

authors_rebecca-jordan_steven-gray — 1. Rebecca Jordan (biography)
2. Steven Gray (biography)

As investigators who engage the public in both modeling and research endeavors we address two major questions: Does citizen science have a place within the participatory modeling research community? And does participatory modeling have a place in the citizen science research community?

Let us start with definitions. Citizen science has been defined in many ways, but we will keep the definition simple. Citizen science refers to endeavors where persons who do not consider themselves scientific experts work with those who do consider themselves experts (around a specific issue) to address an authentic research question.

Models as ‘interested amateurs’

September 5, 2024January 24, 2017

By Pete Barbrook-Johnson

How can we improve the often poor interaction and lack of genuine discussions between policy makers, experts, and those affected by policy?

As a social scientist who makes and uses models, an idea from Daniel Dennett’s (2013) book ‘Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking’ struck a chord with me. Dennett introduces the idea of using lay audiences to aid and improve understanding between experts. Dennett suggests that including lay audiences (which he calls ‘curious nonexperts’) in discussions can entice experts to err on the side of over-explaining their thoughts and positions. When experts are talking only to other experts, Dennett suggests they under-explain, not wanting to insult others or look stupid by going over basic assumptions. This means they can fail to identify areas of disagreement, or to reach consensus, understanding, or conclusions that may be constructive.

For Dennett, the ‘curious nonexperts’ are undergraduate philosophy students, to be included in debates between professors. For me, the book sparked the idea that models could be ‘curious nonexperts’ in policy debates and processes.

Dealing with deep uncertainty: Scenarios

October 25, 2022January 5, 2017

By Laura Schmitt Olabisi

What is deep uncertainty? And how can scenarios help deal with it?

Deep uncertainty refers to ‘unknown unknowns’, which simulation models are fundamentally unsuited to address. Any model is a representation of a system, based on what we know about that system. We can’t model something that nobody knows about—so the capabilities of any model (even a participatory model) are bounded by our collective knowledge.

One of the ways we handle unknown unknowns is by using scenarios. Scenarios are stories about the future, meant to guide our decision-making in the present.

The strength of failing (or how I learned to love ugly babies)

April 9, 2026December 1, 2016

By Randall J. Hunt

randall-hunt — Randall J. Hunt (biography)

How to give others your hard-won insights so that their work can be more informed, efficient, and effective? As I’ve gotten older, it is something that I think about more.

It is widely recognized that the environment is an integrated but also “open” system. As a result, when working with issues relating to the environment we are faced with the unsatisfying fact that we won’t know “truth”. We develop an understanding that is consistent with what we currently know and what we consider state-of-the-practice methods. But, we can never be sure that more observations or different methods would not result in different insights.

Learning through modeling

October 9, 2023November 17, 2016

By Kirsten Kainz

How can co-creation communities use models – simple visual representations and/or sophisticated computer simulations – in ways that promote learning and improvement? Modeling techniques can serve to generate insights and correct misunderstandings. Are they equally as useful for fostering new learning and adaptation? Sterman (2006) argues that if new learning is to occur in complex systems then models must be subjected to testing. Model testing must, in turn, yield evidence that not only guides decision-making within the current model, but also feeds back evidence to improve existing models so that subsequent decisions can be based on new learning.

Consider the real-world case I was involved in of a meeting in a school district that intends to roll-out a new mathematics curriculum and support teachers’ use of the new curriculum through professional development. The district has made a large monetary investment in the curriculum and professional development both through the purchase of materials and the dedication of human resources to the effort.

Uncertainty in participatory modeling – What can we learn from management research?

August 24, 2022November 10, 2016

By Antonie Jetter

I frequently struggle to explain how participatory modeling deals with uncertainty. I found useful guidance in the management literature.

After all, participatory modeling projects and strategic business planning have one commonality – a group of stakeholders and decision-makers aims to understand and ultimately influence a complex system. They do so in the face of great uncertainty that frequently cannot be resolved – at least not within the required time frame. Businesses, for example, have precise data on customer behavior when their accountants report on annual sales. However, by this time, the very precise data is irrelevant because the opportunity to influence the system has passed.

Model complexity – What is the right amount?

August 24, 2022November 3, 2016

By Pete Loucks

How does a modeler know the ’optimal’ level of complexity needed in a model when those desiring to gain insights from the use of such a model aren’t sure what information they will eventually need? In other words, what level of model complexity is needed to do a job when the information needs of that job are uncertain and changing?

Simplification is why we model. We wish to abstract the essence of a system we are studying, and estimate its likely performance, without having to deal with all its detail. We know that our simplified models will be wrong. But, we develop them because they can be useful. The simpler and hence the more understandable models are the more likely they will be useful, and used, ‘as long as they do the job.’

Should I trust that model?

September 15, 2023October 6, 2016

By Val Snow

How do those building and using models decide whether a model should be trusted? While my thinking has evolved through modelling to predict the impacts of land use on losses of nutrients to the environment – such models are central to land use policy development – this under-discussed question applies to any model.

In principle, model development is a straightforward series of steps:

• Specification: what will be included in the model is determined conceptually and/or quantitatively by peers, experts and/or stakeholders and the underlying equations are decided

• Coding: the concepts and equations are translated into computer code and the code is tested using appropriate software development processes

ICTAM: Bringing mental models to numerical models

August 24, 2022September 22, 2016

By Sondoss Elsawah

How can we capture the highly qualitative, subjective and rich nature of people’s thinking – their mental models – and translate it into formal quantitative data to be used in numerical models?

This cannot be addressed by a single method or software tool. We need multi-method approaches that have the capacity to take us through the learning journey of eliciting and representing people’s mental models, analysing them, and generating algorithms that can be incorporated into numerical models.

More importantly, this methodology should allow us to see in a transparent way the progression on this learning journey.

Making predictions under uncertainty

August 24, 2022August 25, 2016

By Joseph Guillaume

Prediction under uncertainty is typically seen as a daunting task. It conjures up images of clouded crystal balls and mysterious oracles in shadowy temples. In a modelling context, it might raise concerns about conclusions built on doubtful assumptions about the future, or about the difficulty in making sense of the many sources of uncertainty affecting highly complex models.

However, prediction under uncertainty can be made tractable depending on the type of prediction. Here I describe ways of making predictions under uncertainty for testing which conclusion is correct. Suppose, for example, that you want to predict whether objectives will be met. There are two possible conclusions – Yes and No, so prediction in this case involves testing which of these competing conclusions is plausible.

Art and participatory modelling

August 24, 2022July 21, 2016

By Hara W. Woltz and Eleanor J. Sterling

authors_mosaic_hara-woltz_eleanor-sterling — 1. Hara W. Woltz (biography)
2. Eleanor J. Sterling (biography)

What can art contribute to participatory modelling? Over the past decade, participatory visual and narrative arts have been more frequently and effectively incorporated into scenario planning and visioning workshops.

We use arts-based techniques in three ways:

incorporating arts language into the process of visioning
delineating eco-aesthetic values of the visual and aural landscape in communities
engaging art to articulate challenges and solutions within local communities.

The arts based approaches we use include collage, drawing, visual note taking, map making, storyboarding, photo documentation through shared cameras, mobile story telling, performance in the landscape, drawing as a recording device, and collective mural creation.