By Antonie Jetter
I frequently struggle to explain how participatory modeling deals with uncertainty. I found useful guidance in the management literature.
After all, participatory modeling projects and strategic business planning have one commonality – a group of stakeholders and decision-makers aims to understand and ultimately influence a complex system. They do so in the face of great uncertainty that frequently cannot be resolved – at least not within the required time frame. Businesses, for example, have precise data on customer behavior when their accountants report on annual sales. However, by this time, the very precise data is irrelevant because the opportunity to influence the system has passed.
Two key lessons from the management literature deal with the nature of uncertainty and responding to four major types of uncertainty.