Dealing with deep uncertainty: Scenarios

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Laura Schmitt Olabisi (biography)

Community member post by Laura Schmitt Olabisi

What is deep uncertainty? And how can scenarios help deal with it?

Deep uncertainty refers to ‘unknown unknowns’, which simulation models are fundamentally unsuited to address. Any model is a representation of a system, based on what we know about that system. We can’t model something that nobody knows about—so the capabilities of any model (even a participatory model) are bounded by our collective knowledge.

One of the ways we handle unknown unknowns is by using scenarios. Scenarios are stories about the future, meant to guide our decision-making in the present. Continue reading

Tool users old and new: Why we need models

Community member post by Suzanne A. Pierce

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Suzanne A. Pierce (biography)

Ask most 21st century citizens whether they like technology and they will respond with a resounding, “Yes!” Ask them why and you’ll get answers like, “Because it’s cool and technology is fun!” or “Technology systems help us learn and understand things.” Or “Technology helps us communicate with one another, keep up with current events, or share what we are doing.” Look at the day-to-day activities of most people on the planet and you’ll find that they use some form of technology to complete almost every activity that they undertake.

When you think about it, technologies are really just tools. And we humans are tool users of old. Continue reading

Models as narratives

Community member post by Alison Singer

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Alison Singer (biography)

I don’t see the world in pictures. I mean, I see the world in all its beautiful shapes and colors and shadings, but I don’t interpret the world that way. I interpret the world through the stories I create. My interpretations of these stories are my own mental models of how I view the world. What I can do then, to share this mental model, is create a more formalized model, whether it is a simple picture (in my case a very badly drawn one), or a system dynamics model, or an agent-based model. People think of models as images, as representations, as visualizations, as simulations. As tools to represent, to simplify, to teach, and to share. And they are all these things, and we need them to function as these things, but they are also stories, and can be interpreted and shared as such. Continue reading

Serious gaming: Helping stakeholders address community problems

Community member post by Nagesh Kolagani

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Nagesh Kolagani (biography)

Citizens are increasingly coming together to solve problems that affect their communities. Participatory modeling is a method that helps them to share their implicit and explicit knowledge of these problems with each other and to plan and implement mutually acceptable and sustainable solutions.

While using this method, stakeholders need to understand large amounts of information relating to these problems. Various interactive visualization tools are being developed for this purpose. One such tool is ‘serious gaming’ which combines technologies from the video game industry – mystery, appealing graphics, etc., – with a purpose other than pure entertainment, a serious, problem driven, educational purpose.

Such gamification is an opportunity for participatory modeling approaches to embed models and simulations of complex processes into games and to attract the stakeholders. Continue reading