Yin-yang thinking – A solution to dealing with unknown unknowns?

By Christiane Prange and Alicia Hennig

author - christiane prange
Christiane Prange (biography)

Sometimes, we wonder why decisions in Asia are being made at gargantuan speed. How do Asians deal with uncertainty arising from unknown unknowns? Can yin-yang thinking that is typical for several Asian cultures provide a useful answer?

Let’s look at differences between Asian and Western thinking first. Western people tend to prefer strategic planning with linear extrapolation of things past. The underlying mantra is risk management to buffer the organization and to protect it from harmful consequences for the business. But juxtaposing risk and uncertainty is critical. Under conditions of uncertainty, linearity is at stake and risk management limited.

In several Asian cultures, like China, dealing with high uncertainty and volatility is day-to-day business. The country overall scores comparatively low on the uncertainty avoidance index as illustrated by culture researcher Geert Hofstede (2001). For an outside observer, everything seems to be in constant change to the extent that initial plans and/or agreements become irrelevant.

author - alicia hennig
Alicia Hennig (biography)

Back in Zhou Dynasty (ca. 1046 – 256 BC) the Chinese already had a ‘solution’ to deal with uncertainty and unknown unknowns. The oracle book Zhou Yi 周易, the Changes of Zhou (with appendices later known as the ancient classic Yi Jing 易經, the Book of Changes) helped the Kings to identify actions leading to good fortune. It was also the first work applying the concept of yin-yang.

Yin-yang represent dual, alternating and interdependent categories or principles that are dynamically related. Yin-yang goes back to natural observations of yin 陰 shady side of the hill, darkness and yang 陽 sunny side of the hill, brightness, that together form an integrated whole. This concept, and the idea that change is the only constant, provides the basis for the Chinese cosmology, worldview and logic. Yin-yang is reflected in the Chinese way of thinking that is characterized by a non-linear worldview, where there is no pre-defined and final goal but patterns are changing, being ‘repeated’ in a circular fashion. This thinking can provide at least three important insights for a better understanding of unknown unknowns.

1. Co-existence and balance of opposing elements
Unlike Western thinking as a process of ‘either/or’ exclusion, yin-yang is ‘both/and’ thinking that suggests the idea of co-existence and balance of opposites. For example, modern approaches to organizations advocate the use of agile principles to better cope with complexity. While a major tenet of agility is speed and adaptability, the concept is incomplete and often unsuccessful if not balanced with slowness and stability.

2. Process-orientation
For Easterners, changes in a (planning) process are no contradiction as long term-opportunity is compatible with constant adaptation; there exists no ultimate a priori truth in a plan, as it needs to be aligned with situation, context, and time. In this sense, planning and implementation are constantly interacting until the goal is reached. For Westerners, this interactive refinement is difficult because they prefer strict project planning, formal scheduling and subsequent implementation.

3. Uncertainty as natural and uncontrollable
The last tenet is probably the most important when it comes to dealing with unknown unknowns. Westerners typically see ambiguity as rather negative. They like to have access to information as a basis of rational planning. When relevant information is missing, they revert to risk scenarios to cover up for the lack of control – a widely misleading exercise to capture what has not been or cannot be known.

In contrast, Eastern people embrace ambiguity as desirable and don’t need to substitute complexity by simplicity and uncertainty with certainty. By seeing uncertainty and certainty as transitory, alternating phases, they avoid the trap of believing that uncertainty can be rationally managed and eliminated. This leads to a more relaxed, realistic and creative approach to unknown unknowns.

Given the attractiveness of Eastern thinking in situations of uncertainty, can Westerners learn from Asians? Can yin-yang thinking be transferred to a different cultural context? In most cases, a direct transfer is difficult because concepts are tied to history and culture. They often touch deeply engrained values that are mostly hidden and subconscious.

Regardless of these barriers, a few ideas from yin-yang thinking could help Westerners when dealing with uncertainty and unknown unknowns:

  • Understand that uncertainty is not something negative but can be strategically exploited, as uncertainty and certainty are two sides of the same coin that are interdependent and alternating;
  • Play with both past patterns and newly emerging patterns to increase the potential scope of action;
  • Practice thinking from different, opposing directions to arrive at variable and flexible solutions under the condition of constant change.

Eastern philosophy may be worth considering when it comes to dealing with the complexities of today. Can we thereby better tackle the uncertainty that accompanies unknown unknowns? Although we cannot eliminate uncertainty, Eastern philosophy can teach us how to deal with it productively. The success of this endeavor, though, is likely to be matter of individuals adapting their thinking to the ‘circular’ logic of yin-yang.

Do you think yin-yang thinking is worth adopting? Have you seen examples in the Western world? What potential difficulties do you see in adopting this logic or way of thinking?

Granet, M. (1985). Das Chinesische Denken (trans: M. Porkert). Suhrkamp: Frankfurt, Germany

Hofstede, G. (2001). Culture’s consequences: Comparing values, behaviors, institutions and organizations across nations. Sage: Thousand Oaks, California, United States of America

Li, P. P. (1998). Towards a geocentric framework of organizational form: A holistic, dynamic and paradoxical approach. Organization Studies, 19, 5: 829–861.

Wang, R. R. (2012). Yinyang: The Way of Heaven and Earth in Chinese Thought and Culture. Cambridge University Press: New York, United States of America

Biography: Christiane Prange PhD is a Professor of Strategic and International Management at Tongji University, Shanghai, China. She is also the Director of the AgileVentureLab, a global think tank and expert advisory group focused on strategizing and transformation of global companies facing shifting dynamics, and learning from Asia (especially China).

Biography: Alicia Hennig PhD is an Associate Professor of Business Ethics at Southeast University, Nanjing, China. She is an interdisciplinary cross-cultural researcher working on Chinese philosophy and its application in business and management.

This blog post is part of a series on unknown unknowns as part of a collaboration between the Australian National University and Defence Science and Technology.

For the seven other blog posts already published in this series, see: https://i2insights.org/tag/partner-defence-science-and-technology/

Scheduled blog posts in the series:
January 14, 2020: Detecting non-linear change ‘inside-the-system’ and ‘out-of-the-blue’ by Susan van ‘t Klooster and Marjolijn Haasnoot
January 28, 2020: How can resilience benefit from planning? by Pedro Ferreira
February 11, 2020: Why do we protect ourselves from unknown unknowns? by Bem Le Hunte

Blackboxing unknown unknowns through vulnerability analysis

By Joseph Guillaume

Author - Joseph Guillaume
Joseph Guillaume (biography)

What’s a productive way to think about undesirable outcomes and how to avoid them, especially in an unpredictable future full of unknown unknowns? Here I describe the technique of vulnerability analysis, which essentially has three steps:

  • Step 1: Identify undesirable outcomes, to be avoided
  • Step 2: Look for conditions that can lead to such outcomes, ie. vulnerabilities
  • Step 3: Manage the system to mitigate or adapt to vulnerable conditions.

The power of vulnerability analysis is that, by starting from outcomes, it avoids making assumptions about what led to the vulnerabilities. Continue reading

Looking in the right places to identify “unknown unknowns” in projects

Author - Tyson R. Browning
Tyson R. Browning (biography)

By Tyson R. Browning

Unknown unknowns pose a tremendous challenge as they are essentially to blame for many of the unwelcome surprises that pop up to derail projects. However, many, perhaps even most, of these so-called unknown unknowns were actually knowable in advance, if project managers had merely looked in the right places.

For example, investigations following major catastrophes (such as space shuttle disasters, train derailments, and terrorist attacks), and project cost and schedule overruns, commonly identify instances where a key bit of knowledge was in fact known by someone working on that project—but failed to be communicated to the project’s top decision makers. In other cases, unknown unknowns emerge from unforeseen interactions among known elements of complex systems, such as product components, process activities, or software systems. Continue reading

Creative writing as a journey into the unknown unknown

By Lelia Green

Author - Lelia Green
Lelia Green (biography)

Do you use writing as a means of accessing your unconscious knowledge and understanding? The electric experience of things falling into place is a well-recorded outcome of ‘writing to find out what you want to say.’ E. L. Doctorow is credited with saying that writing a novel is “like driving at night. You never see further than your headlights, but you can make the whole trip that way” (no formal reference identifiable, but see Quotation Celebration). There is a sense of allowing the unfolding journey to deliver you to your destination, and experiencing the energy rush when you arrive. It’s a matter of relinquishing control and being open to the unexpected. Continue reading

Managing innovation dilemmas: Info-gap theory

By Yakov Ben-Haim

Author - Yakov Ben-Haim
Yakov Ben-Haim (biography)

To use or not to use a new and promising but unfamiliar and hence uncertain innovation? That is the dilemma facing policy makers, engineers, social planners, entrepreneurs, physicians, parents, teachers, and just about everybody in their daily lives. There are new drugs, new energy sources, new foods, new manufacturing technologies, new toys, new pedagogical methods, new weapon systems, new home appliances and many other discoveries and inventions.

Furthermore, the innovation dilemma occurs even when a new technology is not actually involved. The dilemma arises from new attitudes, like individual responsibility for the global environment, or new social conceptions, like global allegiance and self-identity transcending all nation-states. Even the enthusiastic belief in innovation itself as the source of all that is good and worthy entails a dilemma of innovation. Continue reading

What do you know? And how is it relevant to unknown unknowns?

By Matthew Welsh

Author - Matthew Welsh
Matthew Welsh (biography)

How can we distinguish between knowledge and ignorance and our meta-knowledge of these – that is, whether we are aware that we know or don’t know any particular thing? The common answer is the 2×2 trope of: known knowns; unknown knowns; known unknowns; and unknown unknowns.

For those interested in helping people navigate a complex world, unknown unknowns are perhaps the trickiest of these to explain – partly because the moment you think of an example, the previously “unknown unknown” morphs into a “known unknown”.

My interest here is to demonstrate that this 2×2 division of knowledge and ignorance is far less crisp than we often assume.

This is because knowledge is not something that exists in the world but rather in individual minds. That is, whether something is ‘known’ depends not on whether someone, somewhere, knows it; but on whether this person, here-and-now does. Continue reading