Model complexity – What is the right amount?

Community member post by Pete Loucks

p-loucks
Pete Loucks (biography)

How does a modeler know the ’optimal’ level of complexity needed in a model when those desiring to gain insights from the use of such a model aren’t sure what information they will eventually need? In other words, what level of model complexity is needed to do a job when the information needs of that job are uncertain and changing? Continue reading

Moving from models that synthesize to models that innovate

Community member post by Pete Loucks

p-loucks
Pete Loucks (biography)

When computer technology became available for developing and using graphics interfaces for interactive decision support systems, some of us got excited about the potential of directly involving stakeholders in the modeling and analyses of various water resource systems. Many of us believed that generating pictures that could show the impact of various design and management decisions or assumptions any user might want to make would give them a better understanding of the system being modeled and how they might improve its performance.

We even got fancy with respect performing sensitivity analyses and displaying uncertainty. Our displays were clear, understandable, and colorful. Sometimes we witnessed users even believing what they were seeing. Continue reading